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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Martigues and Paris FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Martigues and Paris FC finished level at 1-1 at Stade Francis Turcan, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Martigues 1.08 xG and Paris FC 1.53 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Martigues attack 0.83 / defence 1.35 against Paris FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.93, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Martigues 27% | Draw 26% | Paris FC 47%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Martigues 44%, Paris FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Martigues's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did.

Paris FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights