Martigues vs Laval – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Laval run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Martigues.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Laval beat Martigues 0-3 at Stade Jean Laville, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Martigues 0.48 xG and Laval 1.44 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Laval outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Martigues attack 0.42 / defence 1.44 against Laval attack 0.92 / defence 0.81, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Martigues 12% | Draw 27% | Laval 61%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Martigues 38%, Laval 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Martigues's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 62% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Laval's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Laval arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.69. That form edge translated into the three points. Martigues (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Laval (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights