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Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Martigues 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guingamp beat Martigues 0-1 at Stade Jean Laville, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Martigues 0.62 xG and Guingamp 1.41 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Martigues attack 0.40 / defence 1.55 against Guingamp attack 0.86 / defence 1.09, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Martigues 16% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 56%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Martigues 43%, Guingamp 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Martigues's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 64% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Guingamp's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.64. That form edge translated into the three points. Martigues (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights