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Prediction vindicated as Estac Troyes edge out Martigues 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estac Troyes beat Martigues 1-2 at Stade Francis Turcan, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Martigues 0.73 xG and Estac Troyes 1.25 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Martigues attack 0.61 / defence 1.29 against Estac Troyes attack 0.96 / defence 0.92, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Martigues 22% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 49%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Martigues 43%, Estac Troyes 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 21%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Martigues's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did.

Estac Troyes's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 19% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Martigues 0.86 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights