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Martigues cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Annecy.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Martigues beat Annecy 2-0 at Stade Francis Turcan, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Martigues 0.73 xG and Annecy 1.35 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Martigues beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Annecy landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Martigues attack 0.65 / defence 1.29 against Annecy attack 0.96 / defence 0.91, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Martigues 20% | Draw 28% | Annecy 51%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Martigues win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Martigues 44%, Annecy 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Martigues's trading profile (23 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not.

Annecy's trading profile (23 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Annecy arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with Martigues winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Martigues (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights