🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Martigues run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Amiens.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Martigues beat Amiens 3-0 at Stade Francis Turcan, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Martigues 0.59 xG and Amiens 1.41 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Martigues beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Amiens landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Martigues attack 0.42 / defence 1.43 against Amiens attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Martigues 16% | Draw 27% | Amiens 57%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Martigues win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Martigues 42%, Amiens 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Martigues's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not.

Amiens's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Amiens arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.63. Form was overturned, with Martigues winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Martigues (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights