🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Lorient cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Rodez.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lorient beat Rodez 3-1 at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lorient 1.84 xG and Rodez 1.55 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lorient beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lorient attack 1.28 / defence 1.01 against Rodez attack 1.44 / defence 1.18, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lorient 45% | Draw 22% | Rodez 33%, with Lorient to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lorient 57%, Rodez 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lorient's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Rodez's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lorient 1.34 PPG, Rodez 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lorient win broke the near-deadlock. Lorient (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. Rodez (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights