Lorient vs Estac Troyes – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lorient's attacking strength (1.46x league average) is weighed against Estac Troyes's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Lorient's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lorient Win
51%
1.95
23%
4.33
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Lorient xG
Total xG
3.01
1.21
Estac Troyes xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
16%
6.06
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
4%
23.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lorient vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Lorient and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Lorient and 1.21 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Lorient vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.