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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Le Mans and Reims share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Le Mans and Reims finished level at 1-1 at Stade Marie-Marvingt, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Mans 1.15 xG and Reims 0.76 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Mans attack 1.02 / defence 0.65 against Reims attack 0.96 / defence 0.93, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Mans 43% | Draw 35% | Reims 22%, with Le Mans to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Mans 38%, Reims 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Mans's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Reims's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Le Mans 1.81 PPG, Reims 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights