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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Le Mans and Laval share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Marie-Marvingt, Regular Season - 22, as Le Mans and Laval drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Mans 0.99 xG and Laval 0.65 xG, a combined 1.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Mans attack 0.75 / defence 0.70 against Laval attack 0.79 / defence 1.19, drawn from 21/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Mans 43% | Draw 34% | Laval 23%, with Le Mans to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Mans 33%, Laval 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Mans's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Laval's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Le Mans arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights