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Prediction vindicated as Le Mans edge out Amiens 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Le Mans beat Amiens 1-0 at Stade Marie-Marvingt, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Mans 1.21 xG and Amiens 1.11 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Amiens landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Mans attack 0.75 / defence 0.84 against Amiens attack 1.09 / defence 1.25, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Mans 38% | Draw 28% | Amiens 33%, with Le Mans to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Mans 40%, Amiens 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Mans's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Amiens's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Le Mans arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights