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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Laval and Saint Etienne share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Laval and Saint Etienne finished level at 3-3 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.80 xG and Saint Etienne 0.99 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Laval beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Saint Etienne outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.97 / defence 0.98 against Saint Etienne attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Laval 56% | Draw 23% | Saint Etienne 21%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 44%, Saint Etienne 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Laval's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Saint Etienne's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Laval arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Laval (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights