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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as RED Star FC 93 edge out Laval 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RED Star FC 93 beat Laval 0-1 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 0.75 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.79 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.79 / defence 1.13 against RED Star FC 93 attack 1.24 / defence 0.76, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Laval 15% | Draw 23% | RED Star FC 93 62%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 42%, RED Star FC 93 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Laval's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Laval 1.35 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RED Star FC 93 win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights