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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Laval and RED Star FC 93 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 18, as Laval and RED Star FC 93 drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.66 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.02 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 1.08 / defence 1.06 against RED Star FC 93 attack 0.94 / defence 1.15, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Laval 52% | Draw 25% | RED Star FC 93 23%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 53%, RED Star FC 93 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Laval's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Laval arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights