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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as PAU edge out Laval 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAU beat Laval 0-1 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.14 xG and PAU 1.44 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Laval fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.72 / defence 1.20 against PAU attack 1.01 / defence 1.28, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Laval 30% | Draw 26% | PAU 44%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 39%, PAU 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Laval's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

PAU's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Laval 1.22 PPG, PAU 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights