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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Laval run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Paris FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Laval beat Paris FC 3-0 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 0.96 xG and Paris FC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Laval beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Paris FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.83 / defence 0.97 against Paris FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.90, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Laval 31% | Draw 30% | Paris FC 39%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Laval win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 41%, Paris FC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Laval's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Paris FC's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Laval 1.48 PPG, Paris FC 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights