Laval vs Montpellier – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Montpellier at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Laval vs Montpellier encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Montpellier travel to Stade Francis Le Basser to take on Laval. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 November 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Laval have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Laval at Stade Francis Le Basser this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Laval are significantly better at Stade Francis Le Basser than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Montpellier stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Montpellier's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Montpellier are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Laval, 2 for Montpellier and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 0–2 with Montpellier winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Laval in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Montpellier in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 50% versus Montpellier 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Laval 45% | Montpellier 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.11 xG and Montpellier 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 1.012 / defence 1.265 | Montpellier attack 0.901 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Data: 43 Laval games / 42 Montpellier games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 27% | Draw 27% | Montpellier 46%. Fair-value odds: Laval 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Montpellier 2.17. Montpellier hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Montpellier as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Montpellier offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Laval 70% | Montpellier 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 27% | Draw 27% | Montpellier 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Laval 1.11 / Montpellier 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 1.012 / def 1.265 | Montpellier attack 0.901 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Montpellier xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Montpellier kick off?
Laval vs Montpellier is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 20 November 2026 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
Where is Laval vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Montpellier part of?
Laval vs Montpellier is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 27% chance of winning, Montpellier a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Laval and Montpellier will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Montpellier?
Record (2 meetings): Laval 0W | Draws 0 | Montpellier 2W.
What form are Laval and Montpellier in?
Laval (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Montpellier (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Laval's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Montpellier's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Montpellier's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
27%
3.64
27%
3.73
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Laval xG
Total xG
2.61
1.50
Montpellier xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
6%
16.33
15%
6.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Laval and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Laval and 1.50 for Montpellier, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Laval's recent record stands at 8W 15D 19L from 42 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Montpellier, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 12L across 42 games — 1.57 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Montpellier by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Laval heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Laval have managed 4W 8D 9L from 21 games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Montpellier's away record stands at 8W 6D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Montpellier come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Laval are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 1.17 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Montpellier in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
Montpellier
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 8W 15D 19L in their last 42 games (0.93 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 18W 12D 12L in their last 42 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Montpellier away?
Montpellier's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 0.95 PPG; Montpellier away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Laval or Montpellier been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Montpellier in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Laval and Montpellier runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Laval
0
Draws
2
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Montpellier?
From 2 meetings on record, Laval have won 0, Montpellier have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Montpellier last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Montpellier 2-0 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Montpellier?
Montpellier have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Montpellier see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 57%, Montpellier 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 52% for Laval and 14% for Montpellier.
On the defensive side: Montpellier in 43%; Laval have failed to score in 38% of games; Montpellier in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Montpellier?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Laval's recent matches and 29% of Montpellier's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Laval vs Montpellier usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Laval's recent games and 14% of Montpellier's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Montpellier tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Montpellier in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.