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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Laval and Le Mans share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Laval and Le Mans finished level at 1-1 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.14 xG and Le Mans 1.45 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.76 / defence 1.09 against Le Mans attack 1.08 / defence 1.23, drawn from 44/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Laval 30% | Draw 26% | Le Mans 44%, with Le Mans to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 36%, Le Mans 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Laval's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Le Mans's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Le Mans arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Le Mans (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights