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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Laval defy the odds to beat Grenoble 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Laval beat Grenoble 3-2 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.06 xG and Grenoble 1.09 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Laval beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Grenoble outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.87 / defence 1.18 against Grenoble attack 0.79 / defence 1.08, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Laval 34% | Draw 30% | Grenoble 36%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Laval win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 39%, Grenoble 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Laval's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Grenoble's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Laval 1.15 PPG, Grenoble 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Grenoble (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights