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Prediction vindicated as Laval edge out Estac Troyes 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Laval beat Estac Troyes 1-0 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.26 xG and Estac Troyes 1.12 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Estac Troyes landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 1.06 / defence 1.04 against Estac Troyes attack 1.06 / defence 0.92, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Laval 40% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 33%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 44%, Estac Troyes 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Laval's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Estac Troyes's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Laval 1.49 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights