Laval 1-2 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Laval at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Estac Troyes travel to Stade Francis Le Basser to take on Laval. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 May 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Laval — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Laval at Stade Francis Le Basser this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Estac Troyes have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Estac Troyes's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Laval 0.80 PPG, Estac Troyes 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Laval, 1 for Estac Troyes and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 1–3 with Estac Troyes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Laval in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 49% versus Estac Troyes 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 50% | Estac Troyes 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.08 xG and Estac Troyes 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 0.825 / defence 1.224 | Estac Troyes attack 0.584 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.146. Data: 74 Laval games / 36 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 41% | Draw 32% | Estac Troyes 27%. Fair-value odds: Laval 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Estac Troyes 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Laval are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Laval offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Laval 80% | Estac Troyes 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 41% | Draw 32% | Estac Troyes 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Laval 1.08 / Estac Troyes 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 0.825 / def 1.224 | Estac Troyes attack 0.584 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Laval (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Laval xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Estac Troyes xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Laval vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Estac Troyes?
Laval 1 - 2 Estac Troyes.
Where is Laval vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Estac Troyes part of?
Laval vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 41% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Laval and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Estac Troyes?
Record (1 meetings): Laval 0W | Draws 0 | Estac Troyes 1W.
What form are Laval and Estac Troyes in?
Laval (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Estac Troyes (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Laval's attack at 0.82x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
41%
2.45
32%
3.09
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Laval xG
Total xG
1.90
0.82
Estac Troyes xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 12.3 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Laval and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Laval and 0.82 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Laval come into this having played 74 games, going 28W 14D 32L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Estac Troyes sit at 0.84 PPG from 74 outings (12W 26D 36L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-D across their last five.
Laval carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Laval's home form reads 15W 7D 15L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Estac Troyes have taken 0.62 points per game from 37 outings (4W 11D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Laval come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Laval are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.15 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 65%.
Last 74 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Current Season
Estac Troyes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 28W 14D 32L in their last 74 games (1.32 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 12W 26D 36L in their last 74 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Estac Troyes away?
Laval's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.41 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Laval and Estac Troyes runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Estac Troyes have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 May 2026, when Estac Troyes won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Laval's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Laval
1
Draws
4
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Estac Troyes?
From 6 meetings on record, Laval have won 1, Estac Troyes have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Estac Troyes 4-0 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Estac Troyes?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 60%, Estac Troyes 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Laval) and 60% (Estac Troyes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Estac Troyes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Laval's games and 60% of Estac Troyes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Laval vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Laval's matches and 60% of Estac Troyes's.
Do Laval and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Estac Troyes defy the odds to beat Laval 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Laval 1-2 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 37, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.08 xG and Estac Troyes 0.82 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Estac Troyes outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.82 / defence 1.22 against Estac Troyes attack 0.58 / defence 1.06, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 41% | Draw 32% | Estac Troyes 27%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Estac Troyes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 50%, Estac Troyes 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Laval arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Estac Troyes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.