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Prediction vindicated as Laval edge out Boulogne 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Laval beat Boulogne 2-1 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 0.95 xG and Boulogne 0.94 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Laval beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against Boulogne attack 0.69 / defence 0.83, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Laval 32% | Draw 36% | Boulogne 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Laval win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 37%, Boulogne 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Laval's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Boulogne's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Laval 0.86 PPG, Boulogne 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Boulogne (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights