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Shock result as Annecy defy the odds to beat Laval 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy beat Laval 0-1 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.28 xG and Annecy 0.96 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Laval fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 1.02 / defence 0.94 against Annecy attack 1.01 / defence 0.97, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Laval 44% | Draw 28% | Annecy 28%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 42%, Annecy 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Laval's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Annecy's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Laval 1.51 PPG, Annecy 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights