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Dominant Amiens run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Laval.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Amiens beat Laval 0-3 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.30 xG and Amiens 1.23 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Laval fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Amiens outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 1.04 / defence 1.06 against Amiens attack 1.10 / defence 1.00, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Laval 38% | Draw 27% | Amiens 35%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Amiens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 44%, Amiens 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Laval's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Amiens's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Laval 1.46 PPG, Amiens 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights