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Prediction vindicated as Laval edge out Amiens 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Laval beat Amiens 1-0 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.63 xG and Amiens 0.84 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Amiens landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.99 / defence 0.94 against Amiens attack 0.81 / defence 1.19, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Laval 56% | Draw 25% | Amiens 19%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 44%, Amiens 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Laval's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Amiens's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Laval 1.46 PPG, Amiens 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights