🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant RED Star FC 93 run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Guingamp.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RED Star FC 93 beat Guingamp 0-4 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.68 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.37 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Guingamp fell 1.7 short of their projected output. RED Star FC 93 outscored their 1.37 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.18 / defence 1.22 against RED Star FC 93 attack 0.96 / defence 0.99, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Guingamp 45% | Draw 25% | RED Star FC 93 31%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual RED Star FC 93 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 61%, RED Star FC 93 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guingamp's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.47 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RED Star FC 93 win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights