Guingamp vs Nancy – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Nancy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nancy make the trip to Stade de Roudourou to face Guingamp in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Friday 22 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp at Stade de Roudourou this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade de Roudourou than their overall form suggests.
Nancy have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Nancy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nancy's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Nancy are 0.60 PPG clear of Guingamp in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Guingamp 2W, Nancy 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2026, ended 3–0 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Guingamp — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Nancy — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 52% versus Nancy 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 58% | Nancy 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.17 xG and Nancy 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.143 / defence 1.075 | Nancy attack 0.744 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.178. Data: 40 Guingamp games / 40 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 41% | Draw 30% | Nancy 29%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Nancy 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Nancy (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 40% | Nancy 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Nancy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 22 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 41% | Draw 30% | Nancy 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Guingamp 1.17 / Nancy 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.143 / def 1.075 | Nancy attack 0.744 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Nancy xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Nancy kick off?
Guingamp vs Nancy is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 22 January 2027 at Stade de Roudourou.
Where is Guingamp vs Nancy being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Nancy part of?
Guingamp vs Nancy is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Nancy?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 41% chance of winning, Nancy a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Nancy?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Guingamp and Nancy will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Nancy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Nancy?
Record (4 meetings): Guingamp 2W | Draws 1 | Nancy 1W.
What form are Guingamp and Nancy in?
Guingamp (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Nancy (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Guingamp's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Nancy's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Nancy's attack (0.74x) against Guingamp's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
41%
2.44
30%
3.35
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.11
0.94
Nancy xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
9%
11.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.4 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Nancy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Nancy expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.94 for Nancy, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Nancy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Guingamp's recent record stands at 12W 12D 16L from 40 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nancy, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 18L across 40 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Nancy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Guingamp against 1.10 for Nancy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Guingamp have managed 8W 6D 6L from 20 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nancy's away record stands at 5W 8D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Guingamp are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Nancy are on 0.98 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
Nancy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Nancy in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 12W 12D 16L in their last 40 games (1.20 PPG), while Nancy have gone 11W 11D 18L in their last 40 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Nancy away?
Guingamp's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.50 PPG; Nancy away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guingamp won 0-3 on 19 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nancy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Guingamp
1
Draws
1
Nancy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Nancy?
From 4 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Nancy have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Nancy last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Nancy 0-3 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Nancy?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Nancy see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 40%, Nancy 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Guingamp) and 50% (Nancy).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 30% of games; Nancy in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Nancy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Nancy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Guingamp's recent matches and 55% of Nancy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Nancy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Guingamp's recent games and 50% of Nancy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Nancy tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Nancy in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.