Guingamp 0-3 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Guingamp face Metz.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Roudourou plays host to Guingamp versus Metz in Ligue 2 (matchday 23). Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Guingamp's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Guingamp have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Metz (all games): 5W 5D 0L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Metz's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2024, ended Guingamp 0–1 Metz — a Metz win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Guingamp half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Metz half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 40% versus Metz 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 52% | Metz 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.24 xG and Metz 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.176 / defence 0.831 | Metz attack 0.741 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.074. Metz's attack rating of 0.741 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.66. Data: built from Guingamp's last 60 games and Metz's last 22.
Result probabilities: Guingamp 50% | Draw 30% | Metz 20%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.99 | Draw 3.34 | Metz 5.03. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Metz's lower xG of 0.66 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 70% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Guingamp 40% (last 10 home games) | Metz 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 23 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 50% | Draw 30% | Metz 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Guingamp 1.24 / Metz 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.176 / def 0.831 | Metz attack 0.741 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Metz xG
34%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Guingamp vs Metz FAQs
What time does Guingamp vs Metz kick off?
Guingamp vs Metz kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Metz?
Guingamp 0 - 3 Metz.
Where is Guingamp vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Metz part of?
Guingamp vs Metz is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 23) (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 50% chance of winning, Metz a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Guingamp and Metz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Guingamp vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 1.18x the league average against Metz's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Metz's attack (0.74x) against Guingamp's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from Guingamp's last 60 games and Metz's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.6%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
50%
1.99
30%
3.34
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Guingamp xG
Total xG
1.90
0.66
Metz xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
6%
17.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 9.9 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.5 | 12.3 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Guingamp vs Metz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.66 for Metz, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guingamp come into this having played 58 games, going 24W 14D 20L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Metz sit at 1.22 PPG from 58 outings (19W 14D 25L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Guingamp against 1.22 for Metz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Guingamp's home form reads 10W 9D 9L across their last 28 home games, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Metz have taken 1.07 points per game from their last 28 away games (8W 6D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guingamp are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.24 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Metz
Blended
Guingamp (Home) vs Metz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Guingamp
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Guingamp vs Metz Form FAQs
What form are Guingamp and Metz in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 24W 14D 20L in their last 58 games (1.48 PPG), while Metz have gone 19W 14D 25L in their last 58 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Metz away?
Guingamp's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.39 PPG; Metz away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Metz in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Metz have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guingamp won Metz 3-6 Guingamp on 12 Sep 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Metz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Guingamp
1
Draws
3
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Guingamp vs Metz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Metz?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Guingamp have won 1, Metz have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Metz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Metz 2-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Metz?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 39%, Metz 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Guingamp) and 46% (Metz).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 32% of games; Metz in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Guingamp vs Metz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Guingamp and Metz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Guingamp's recent matches and 54% of Metz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Guingamp and Metz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Guingamp's recent games and 46% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Metz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Guingamp's recent matches and 61% of Metz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Metz run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz beat Guingamp 0-3 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.24 xG and Metz 0.66 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Guingamp fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Metz outscored their 0.66 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.18 / defence 0.83 against Metz attack 0.74 / defence 0.84, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 50% | Draw 30% | Metz 20%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Metz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 52%, Metz 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Metz's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.48 PPG, Metz 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metz win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Metz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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