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Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Martigues 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guingamp beat Martigues 2-1 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.28 xG and Martigues 0.91 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.07 / defence 1.00 against Martigues attack 0.83 / defence 0.86, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guingamp 45% | Draw 29% | Martigues 26%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 61%, Martigues 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guingamp's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Martigues's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights