Guingamp 2-1 Martigues – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Martigues fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Martigues make the trip to Stade du Roudourou to face Guingamp in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Friday 25 April 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Guingamp (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stade du Roudourou — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade du Roudourou. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade du Roudourou than their overall form suggests.
Martigues have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Martigues's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Guingamp against 1.30 for Martigues. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Guingamp have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Martigues in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Guingamp lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with Guingamp winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Martigues goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 48% versus Martigues 26%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 61% | Martigues 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.28 xG and Martigues 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.067 / defence 1.003 | Martigues attack 0.826 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.100. Data: 69 Guingamp games / 31 Martigues games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 45% | Draw 29% | Martigues 26%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Martigues 3.85. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 30% | Martigues 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Martigues | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 25 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 45% | Draw 29% | Martigues 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Guingamp 1.28 / Martigues 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.067 / def 1.003 | Martigues attack 0.826 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Martigues xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Martigues kick off?
Guingamp vs Martigues kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 April 2025 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Martigues?
Guingamp 2 - 1 Martigues.
Where is Guingamp vs Martigues being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Martigues part of?
Guingamp vs Martigues is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Martigues?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 45% chance of winning, Martigues a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Martigues?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Guingamp and Martigues will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Martigues have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Martigues?
Record (1 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 0 | Martigues 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Martigues in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Martigues (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 1.07x the league average against Martigues's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Martigues's attack (0.83x) against Guingamp's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 69/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
45%
2.22
29%
3.51
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.19
0.91
Martigues xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
7%
13.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.2 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Martigues?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Martigues expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.91 for Martigues, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Martigues?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guingamp's recent record stands at 15W 3D 13L from 31 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Martigues, meanwhile, have gone 9W 4D 18L across 31 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Guingamp by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Martigues heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Guingamp have managed 8W 2D 5L from 15 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Martigues's away record stands at 6W 2D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guingamp are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Martigues are on 0.84 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Martigues in 26%.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Current Season
Martigues
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Martigues in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 15W 3D 13L in their last 31 games (1.55 PPG), while Martigues have gone 9W 4D 18L in their last 31 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Martigues away?
Guingamp's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.73 PPG; Martigues away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Martigues been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Martigues in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Guingamp
0
Draws
0
Martigues
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Martigues?
From 2 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Martigues have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Martigues last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Guingamp 2-1 Martigues.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Martigues?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Martigues are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Guingamp) and 27% (Martigues) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Guingamp) and 40% (Martigues).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Martigues in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Martigues away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Martigues?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Guingamp's recent matches and 27% of Martigues's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Martigues usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Guingamp's recent games and 40% of Martigues's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Martigues tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Martigues in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Martigues 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Martigues 2-1 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.28 xG and Martigues 0.91 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.07 / defence 1.00 against Martigues attack 0.83 / defence 0.86, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 45% | Draw 29% | Martigues 26%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 61%, Martigues 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Martigues's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.