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Shock result as Guingamp defy the odds to beat Estac Troyes 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guingamp beat Estac Troyes 1-0 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.19 xG and Estac Troyes 1.33 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Estac Troyes landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.12 / defence 1.13 against Estac Troyes attack 0.97 / defence 0.86, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guingamp 33% | Draw 27% | Estac Troyes 40%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 66%, Estac Troyes 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guingamp's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Estac Troyes's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.53 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights