Guingamp 4-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guingamp and Estac Troyes meet at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Friday 16 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Guingamp have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Guingamp haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stade du Roudourou — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Estac Troyes (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Estac Troyes haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Estac Troyes's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Guingamp, 0.80 for Estac Troyes — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Guingamp, 0 for Estac Troyes and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Guingamp half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Estac Troyes half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 40% versus Estac Troyes 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 47% | Estac Troyes 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.22 xG and Estac Troyes 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.918 / defence 1.001 | Estac Troyes attack 0.896 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.161. Data: 38 Guingamp games / 38 Estac Troyes games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Guingamp 39% | Draw 31% | Estac Troyes 30%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Estac Troyes 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 40% | Estac Troyes 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 16 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 39% | Draw 31% | Estac Troyes 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Guingamp 1.22 / Estac Troyes 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.918 / def 1.001 | Estac Troyes attack 0.896 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Estac Troyes xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Guingamp vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 August 2024 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Estac Troyes?
Guingamp 4 - 0 Estac Troyes.
Where is Guingamp vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Estac Troyes part of?
Guingamp vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 39% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Guingamp and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Estac Troyes?
Record (2 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 1 | Estac Troyes 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Estac Troyes in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Guingamp (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 0.92x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (0.90x) against Guingamp's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
39%
2.56
31%
3.25
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.26
1.04
Estac Troyes xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
9%
11.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.9 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.04 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Guingamp come into this having played 38 games, going 13W 12D 13L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. Guingamp haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Estac Troyes sit at 1.11 PPG from 38 outings (9W 15D 14L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-D across their last five. Estac Troyes haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Guingamp against 1.11 for Estac Troyes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Guingamp's home form reads 5W 7D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Estac Troyes have taken 0.84 points per game from 19 outings (2W 10D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Guingamp are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.13 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 61%.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Pre-Season
Estac Troyes
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 13W 12D 13L in their last 38 games (1.34 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 9W 15D 14L in their last 38 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Estac Troyes away?
Guingamp's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.16 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guingamp won 4-0 on 16 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Guingamp
1
Draws
1
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Estac Troyes?
From 6 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 4, Estac Troyes have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Guingamp 1-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Estac Troyes?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 37%, Estac Troyes 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Guingamp) and 37% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Estac Troyes in 32%; Guingamp have failed to score in 42% of games; Estac Troyes in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Guingamp's recent matches and 47% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Guingamp's recent games and 37% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Guingamp run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Estac Troyes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Estac Troyes 4-0 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.22 xG and Estac Troyes 1.04 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Estac Troyes landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.92 / defence 1.00 against Estac Troyes attack 0.90 / defence 0.97, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 39% | Draw 31% | Estac Troyes 30%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 47%, Estac Troyes 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.34 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.