Guingamp 1-0 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Ajaccio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Roudourou plays host to Guingamp versus Ajaccio in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Tuesday 29 October 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Guingamp have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade du Roudourou, Guingamp have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Ajaccio (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ajaccio have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Guingamp, 1.10 for Ajaccio — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Guingamp, 1 for Ajaccio and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 0–3 with Ajaccio winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Guingamp half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Ajaccio half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 40% versus Ajaccio 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 49% | Ajaccio 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.89 xG and Ajaccio 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.131 / defence 1.137 | Ajaccio attack 0.682 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.139. Data: 48 Guingamp games / 47 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 61% | Draw 22% | Ajaccio 17%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Ajaccio 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Guingamp (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 50% | Ajaccio 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 Oct 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 61% | Draw 22% | Ajaccio 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG Guingamp 1.89 / Ajaccio 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.131 / def 1.137 | Ajaccio attack 0.682 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (61%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Ajaccio xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Ajaccio kick off?
Guingamp vs Ajaccio kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 29 October 2024 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Ajaccio?
Guingamp 1 - 0 Ajaccio.
Where is Guingamp vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Ajaccio part of?
Guingamp vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 61% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Guingamp and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Ajaccio?
Record (4 meetings): Guingamp 2W | Draws 1 | Ajaccio 1W.
What form are Guingamp and Ajaccio in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Ajaccio (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Guingamp vs Ajaccio?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.13) and Ajaccio's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ajaccio's attack (0.68x) against Guingamp's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 48/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
61%
1.64
22%
4.56
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.77
0.88
Ajaccio xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
25%
3.96
3%
38.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.4 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.88 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Ajaccio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Guingamp come into this having played 47 games, going 16W 13D 18L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ajaccio sit at 1.21 PPG from 47 outings (15W 12D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Guingamp against 1.21 for Ajaccio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Guingamp's home form reads 7W 8D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajaccio have taken 0.46 points per game from 24 outings (2W 5D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ajaccio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Guingamp are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.91 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 16W 13D 18L in their last 47 games (1.30 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 15W 12D 20L in their last 47 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Ajaccio away?
Guingamp's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.21 PPG; Ajaccio away: 0.46 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Guingamp go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guingamp won 3-0 on 18 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ajaccio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Guingamp
1
Draws
1
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Ajaccio?
From 6 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 4, Ajaccio have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Ajaccio 0-3 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Ajaccio?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 42%, Ajaccio 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Guingamp) and 38% (Ajaccio).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 38% of games; Ajaccio in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Guingamp's recent matches and 29% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Guingamp's recent games and 38% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Ajaccio 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Ajaccio 1-0 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.89 xG and Ajaccio 0.88 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Guingamp fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Ajaccio landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.13 / defence 1.14 against Ajaccio attack 0.68 / defence 1.18, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 61% | Draw 22% | Ajaccio 17%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 49%, Ajaccio 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ajaccio's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.30 PPG, Ajaccio 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.