Guingamp 3-0 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Ajaccio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Roudourou plays host to Guingamp versus Ajaccio in Ligue 2 (matchday 6). Kick-off: Monday 18 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Guingamp have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Guingamp have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Ajaccio (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Ajaccio have gone 1W 0D 9L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Guingamp's favour (1.70 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Guingamp, 0 for Ajaccio and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 12 Feb 2022, ended Guingamp 1–0 Ajaccio — a Guingamp win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Guingamp half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Ajaccio half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 54% versus Ajaccio 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 46% | Ajaccio 51%). Note also that Ajaccio surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Guingamp recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.72 xG and Ajaccio 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.133 / defence 0.911 | Ajaccio attack 0.740 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.307 / away 1.045. Ajaccio's attack rating of 0.740 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.70. Data: built from Guingamp's last 43 games and Ajaccio's last 5.
Result probabilities: Guingamp 61% | Draw 25% | Ajaccio 14%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.64 | Draw 4.06 | Ajaccio 7.00. The model has a clear lean to Guingamp (61%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Guingamp 50% (last 10 home games) | Ajaccio 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 6 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Monday 18 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 61% | Draw 25% | Ajaccio 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Guingamp 1.72 / Ajaccio 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.133 / def 0.911 | Ajaccio attack 0.740 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.307 / away 1.045 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Ajaccio xG
42%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Guingamp vs Ajaccio FAQs
What time does Guingamp vs Ajaccio kick off?
Guingamp vs Ajaccio kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Monday 18 September 2023 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Ajaccio?
Guingamp 3 - 0 Ajaccio.
Where is Guingamp vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Ajaccio part of?
Guingamp vs Ajaccio is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 6) (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 61% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 14% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Guingamp and Ajaccio will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Guingamp vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.13) and Ajaccio's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ajaccio's attack (0.74x) against Guingamp's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from Guingamp's last 43 games and Ajaccio's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
61%
1.64
25%
4.06
14%
7.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.42
0.70
Ajaccio xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
7.00
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
49%
2.02
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
3%
39.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 10.7 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Guingamp vs Ajaccio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.70 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Ajaccio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Guingamp come into this having played 43 games, going 17W 11D 15L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Ajaccio sit at 0.74 PPG from 43 outings (8W 8D 27L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-D across their last five.
Guingamp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Ajaccio — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Guingamp's home form reads 8W 4D 9L across their last 21 home games, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajaccio have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 21 away games (4W 2D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Guingamp are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.63 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
Ajaccio
Early Season
Guingamp (Home) vs Ajaccio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Guingamp
Early Season
Ajaccio
Early Season
❓ Guingamp vs Ajaccio Form FAQs
What form are Guingamp and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 17W 11D 15L in their last 43 games (1.44 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 8W 8D 27L in their last 43 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Ajaccio away?
Guingamp's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.33 PPG; Ajaccio away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Guingamp and Ajaccio, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Guingamp have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guingamp won Guingamp 3-0 Ajaccio on 18 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ajaccio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Guingamp
1
Draws
1
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Guingamp vs Ajaccio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Ajaccio?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Guingamp have won 4, Ajaccio have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Ajaccio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2025: Ajaccio 0-3 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Ajaccio?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 48%, Ajaccio 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Guingamp) and 67% (Ajaccio). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp have failed to score in 33% of games; Ajaccio in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Guingamp vs Ajaccio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Guingamp and Ajaccio matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Guingamp's recent matches and 43% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Guingamp and Ajaccio matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Guingamp's matches and 67% of Ajaccio's.
Do Guingamp and Ajaccio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Guingamp's recent matches and 76% of Ajaccio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Guingamp run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ajaccio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Ajaccio 3-0 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.72 xG and Ajaccio 0.70 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.13 / defence 0.91 against Ajaccio attack 0.74 / defence 1.16, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 61% | Draw 25% | Ajaccio 14%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 46%, Ajaccio 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ajaccio's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.74. That form edge translated into the three points. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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