🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Grenoble's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grenoble and Saint Etienne finished level at 0-0 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 0.85 xG and Saint Etienne 1.02 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Grenoble fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Saint Etienne landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.78 / defence 0.86 against Saint Etienne attack 1.01 / defence 0.97, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grenoble 29% | Draw 32% | Saint Etienne 39%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 48%, Saint Etienne 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grenoble's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Saint Etienne's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.25 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights