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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Grenoble edge out Rodez 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grenoble beat Rodez 2-1 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.16 xG and Rodez 0.96 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Grenoble beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.73 / defence 0.88 against Rodez attack 0.92 / defence 1.21, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grenoble 40% | Draw 30% | Rodez 30%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 51%, Rodez 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grenoble's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Rodez's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.28 PPG, Rodez 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grenoble win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights