🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant RED Star FC 93 run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Grenoble.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RED Star FC 93 beat Grenoble 0-3 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 0.89 xG and RED Star FC 93 0.89 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Grenoble fell 0.9 short of their projected output. RED Star FC 93 outscored their 0.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.84 / defence 0.85 against RED Star FC 93 attack 0.90 / defence 0.83, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grenoble 34% | Draw 33% | RED Star FC 93 33%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual RED Star FC 93 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 49%, RED Star FC 93 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grenoble's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.25 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RED Star FC 93 win broke the near-deadlock. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights