Grenoble 2-0 PAU – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Grenoble at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grenoble vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAU make the trip to Stade des Alpes to face Grenoble in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Grenoble's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grenoble's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 1L across 5 games at Stade des Alpes this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Grenoble are significantly better at Stade des Alpes than their overall form suggests.
PAU (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 1L across 4 road games this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Grenoble half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
PAU half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 40% versus PAU 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 50% | PAU 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.35 xG and PAU 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 1.268 / defence 1.161 | PAU attack 0.893 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 0.866 / away 1.061. Grenoble carry an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — their λ of 1.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Grenoble's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Grenoble games / 10 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 40% | Draw 32% | PAU 28%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | PAU 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Grenoble at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grenoble if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Grenoble 40% | PAU 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 40% | Draw 32% | PAU 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Grenoble 1.35 / PAU 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 1.268 / def 1.161 | PAU attack 0.893 / def 1.232 | league avg home 0.866 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
1.10
PAU xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs PAU kick off?
Grenoble vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs PAU?
Grenoble 2 - 0 PAU.
Where is Grenoble vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs PAU part of?
Grenoble vs PAU is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 40% chance of winning, PAU a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Grenoble and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and PAU?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Grenoble and PAU in?
Grenoble (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. PAU (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Grenoble's attack rating (1.27) and PAU's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAU's attack (0.89x) against Grenoble's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
40%
2.50
32%
3.11
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.45
1.10
PAU xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
7%
13.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Grenoble and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Grenoble and 1.10 for PAU, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Grenoble's recent record stands at 3W 2D 5L from 10 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAU, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 3L across 10 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Grenoble against 1.50 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Grenoble have managed 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Grenoble are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
PAU's away record stands at 1W 2D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grenoble come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Grenoble are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.20 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Last 10 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and PAU in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while PAU have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or PAU away?
Grenoble's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 2.50 PPG; PAU away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Grenoble or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, PAU in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grenoble have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Grenoble
5
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and PAU?
From 10 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 2, PAU have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when PAU 2-2 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 50%, PAU 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Grenoble) and 50% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; PAU in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Grenoble's recent matches and 50% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Grenoble's recent games and 50% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and PAU tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, PAU in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grenoble cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble beat PAU 2-0 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.35 xG and PAU 1.10 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. PAU landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 1.27 / defence 1.16 against PAU attack 0.89 / defence 1.23, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 40% | Draw 32% | PAU 28%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 50%, PAU 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
PAU's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.10 PPG, PAU 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grenoble win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.