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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Grenoble and PAU share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grenoble and PAU finished level at 1-1 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.17 xG and PAU 1.56 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.87 / defence 1.01 against PAU attack 1.21 / defence 1.07, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grenoble 28% | Draw 25% | PAU 46%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 54%, PAU 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grenoble's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

PAU's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.28 PPG, PAU 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights