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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Paris FC defy the odds to beat Grenoble 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris FC beat Grenoble 1-2 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.28 xG and Paris FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Paris FC outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against Paris FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.00, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grenoble 40% | Draw 28% | Paris FC 33%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Paris FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 48%, Paris FC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grenoble's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Paris FC's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.36 PPG, Paris FC 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Grenoble (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights