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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Grenoble and Montpellier share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 17, as Grenoble and Montpellier drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 0.97 xG and Montpellier 0.69 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.83 / defence 0.81 against Montpellier attack 0.71 / defence 0.94, drawn from 50/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grenoble 41% | Draw 34% | Montpellier 25%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 52%, Montpellier 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grenoble's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Montpellier's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Grenoble arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Montpellier (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights