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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Grenoble and Le Mans share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grenoble and Le Mans finished level at 1-1 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.12 xG and Le Mans 1.22 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.80 / defence 0.91 against Le Mans attack 1.14 / defence 1.14, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grenoble 31% | Draw 32% | Le Mans 36%, with Le Mans to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 42%, Le Mans 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grenoble's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Le Mans's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Le Mans arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Le Mans (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights