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Stalemate at Grenoble's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 12, as Grenoble and Guingamp drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.48 xG and Guingamp 1.49 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Grenoble fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Guingamp landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.90 / defence 0.96 against Guingamp attack 1.26 / defence 1.34, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grenoble 37% | Draw 24% | Guingamp 38%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 51%, Guingamp 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grenoble's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Guingamp's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.24 PPG, Guingamp 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights