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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Grenoble cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Estac Troyes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grenoble beat Estac Troyes 3-1 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.03 xG and Estac Troyes 1.28 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Grenoble beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.91 / defence 1.12 against Estac Troyes attack 1.05 / defence 0.80, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grenoble 30% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 42%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Grenoble win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 49%, Estac Troyes 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grenoble's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Estac Troyes's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.34 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grenoble win broke the near-deadlock. Grenoble (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights