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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Grenoble and Clermont Foot share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grenoble and Clermont Foot finished level at 2-2 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 0.99 xG and Clermont Foot 0.90 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Grenoble beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Clermont Foot outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.74 / defence 0.80 against Clermont Foot attack 0.95 / defence 1.17, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grenoble 36% | Draw 34% | Clermont Foot 30%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 48%, Clermont Foot 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grenoble's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Clermont Foot's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.23 PPG, Clermont Foot 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Grenoble (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights