Grenoble vs Annecy – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Grenoble at 35%, yet in-form Annecy provide a compelling counter-argument — this Grenoble vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Grenoble host Annecy at Stade des Alpes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 4 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Grenoble stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Grenoble have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Grenoble at Stade des Alpes this season: 2W 7D 1L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade des Alpes.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Annecy have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Annecy — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Grenoble, 2 for Annecy and 3 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Grenoble in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Annecy in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 53% versus Annecy 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 42% | Annecy 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.08 xG and Annecy 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.830 / defence 0.811 | Annecy attack 0.991 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Data: 38 Grenoble games / 38 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 35% | Draw 34% | Annecy 31%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Annecy 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grenoble are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Annecy (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grenoble offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Grenoble 40% | Annecy 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Friday 4 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 35% | Draw 34% | Annecy 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Grenoble 1.08 / Annecy 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.830 / def 0.811 | Annecy attack 0.991 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Annecy xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Annecy kick off?
Grenoble vs Annecy is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 4 September 2026 at Stade des Alpes.
Where is Grenoble vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Annecy part of?
Grenoble vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 35% chance of winning, Annecy a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Grenoble and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Annecy?
Record (8 meetings): Grenoble 3W | Draws 3 | Annecy 2W.
What form are Grenoble and Annecy in?
Grenoble (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Annecy (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Grenoble's attack at 0.83x the league average against Annecy's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Grenoble's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
35%
2.84
34%
2.97
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.09
1.01
Annecy xG
2.84
35%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
11%
9.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Grenoble and 1.01 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Grenoble come into this having played 38 games, going 9W 16D 13L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Grenoble, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.55 PPG from 38 outings (17W 8D 13L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Annecy carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Grenoble — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Grenoble's home form reads 5W 11D 2L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 1.56 points per game from 18 outings (9W 1D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Grenoble are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.42 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Early Season
Annecy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Annecy in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 9W 16D 13L in their last 38 games (1.13 PPG), while Annecy have gone 17W 8D 13L in their last 38 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Annecy away?
Annecy's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.44 PPG; Annecy away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Annecy in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Grenoble's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Grenoble
3
Draws
2
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Annecy?
From 8 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 3, Annecy have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Annecy 1-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Annecy?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 44%, Annecy 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Grenoble) and 61% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Annecy in 33%; Grenoble have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Grenoble's recent matches and 44% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Grenoble's recent games and 61% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and Annecy tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Annecy in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.