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Annecy cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Grenoble.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy beat Grenoble 1-3 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.21 xG and Annecy 0.73 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Annecy outscored their 0.73 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.99 / defence 0.89 against Annecy attack 0.78 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grenoble 48% | Draw 30% | Annecy 22%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Annecy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 54%, Annecy 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grenoble's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Annecy's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.31 PPG, Annecy 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Grenoble (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights