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Prediction vindicated as Grenoble edge out Amiens 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grenoble beat Amiens 2-1 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.18 xG and Amiens 1.13 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Grenoble beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.80 / defence 1.01 against Amiens attack 0.94 / defence 1.19, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grenoble 37% | Draw 28% | Amiens 35%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 52%, Amiens 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grenoble's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Amiens's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.26 PPG, Amiens 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grenoble win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights