Grenoble vs Amiens – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Grenoble's attack at 0.96x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (1.01x) against Grenoble's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
56%
1.79
25%
4.02
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.44
0.83
Amiens xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
4%
25.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 11.7 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Grenoble and 0.83 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Amiens?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.