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Shock result as Saint Etienne defy the odds to beat Estac Troyes 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Saint Etienne beat Estac Troyes 2-3 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 2.28 xG and Saint Etienne 0.90 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Saint Etienne outscored their 0.90 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.43 / defence 0.81 against Saint Etienne attack 0.93 / defence 1.23, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 68% | Draw 18% | Saint Etienne 13%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Saint Etienne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 49%, Saint Etienne 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estac Troyes's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Saint Etienne's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Estac Troyes arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Saint Etienne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights